How we score

Yield Curve · 10-Year minus 2-Year

Not a static level — the curve scores by state. An inversion (below zero) is a classic recession warning that preceded every U.S. recession since the 1970s; a recent un-inversion warrants vigilance, because recessions historically begin after the curve climbs back above zero; a positive curve with no recent inversion is the all-clear.

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 0.35
• watch0.35 to 0.50
• alert0.50 and up

The Sahm rule trips at 0.50 — historically consistent with a recession already underway. 0.35–0.50 is the warning band as it climbs toward the trigger.

Initial Jobless Claims · weekly

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 250,000
• watch250,000 to 300,000
• elevated300,000 and up

Weekly initial jobless claims. Below ~250k, employers aren't shedding workers; 250–300k is a creeping rise; above 300k points to accelerating layoffs.

Unemployment Rate

Scored on the rise above the trailing-12-month low.

• okbelow 0.50 pts
• watch0.50 pts and up

Scored on the rise above the trailing-12-month low, not the raw level (the Sahm-style signal): a climb of 0.5 points or more off the recent low has preceded past downturns.

Federal Funds Rate

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 4.00%
• watch4.00% and up

The Fed's policy rate. At or above 4% is a restrictive stance worth flagging; the read also notes the ~12-month direction.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 4.50%
• watch4.50% to 5.50%
• elevated5.50% and up

Scored by level: above the watch line a Treasury yield is pricier than the post-2010 norm for borrowers; above the elevated line it's broadly restrictive. There is no 'alert' here — an expensive rate is a drag, not a crisis the way a default spike is.

2-Year Treasury Yield

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 4.00%
• watch4.00% to 5.00%
• elevated5.00% and up

Scored by level: above the watch line a Treasury yield is pricier than the post-2010 norm for borrowers; above the elevated line it's broadly restrictive. There is no 'alert' here — an expensive rate is a drag, not a crisis the way a default spike is.

Rate Expectations · 2-Year minus Fed Funds

Tracked, not scored: Whether markets expect cuts or hikes isn't itself good or bad — it's the bond market's forecast, shown for context.

Unemployment Rate

Scored on the rise above the trailing-12-month low.

• okbelow 0.50 pts
• watch0.50 pts and up

Scored on the rise above the trailing-12-month low, not the raw level (the Sahm-style signal): a climb of 0.5 points or more off the recent low has preceded past downturns.

Nonfarm Payrolls · monthly change

Scored on the latest reading.

• alertbelow 0
• watch0 to 150,000
• ok150,000 and up

Monthly jobs added. Outright job losses are an alert; under ~75k and ~150k are slowing-but-positive paces; above that is a healthy clip.

Job Openings (JOLTS)

Scored on the latest reading.

• watchbelow 7.50M
• ok7.50M and up

Job openings (JOLTS), in millions. Below ~7.5M flags cooling labor demand.

Wage Growth · year-over-year

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• elevatedbelow 2.00%
• watch2.00% to 3.00%
• ok3.00% and up

In the job-market frame, strong pay is healthy and stalling pay signals a softening labor market, so this warns on the LOW side: under 2% a year is stalled. (The inflation angle lives in Cost of Living's real wages.)

Quits Rate (JOLTS)

Tracked, not scored: The quits rate tends to track workers' confidence in finding another job — shown for context; the verdict is carried by unemployment, payrolls, and openings.

Labor-Force Participation Rate

Tracked, not scored: This level drifts with demographics — the job-market verdict is carried by unemployment, payrolls, and job openings.

Inflation · CPI (year-over-year)

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• okbelow 2.50%
• watch2.50% to 4.00%
• elevated4.00% and up

A year-over-year inflation rate (CPI, core, or PCE) against the Fed's 2% goal: near 2% is ok, 2.5–4% is still above target, 4%+ is hot.

Core CPI (year-over-year)

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• okbelow 2.50%
• watch2.50% to 4.00%
• elevated4.00% and up

A year-over-year inflation rate (CPI, core, or PCE) against the Fed's 2% goal: near 2% is ok, 2.5–4% is still above target, 4%+ is hot.

PCE Inflation (year-over-year)

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• okbelow 2.50%
• watch2.50% to 4.00%
• elevated4.00% and up

A year-over-year inflation rate (CPI, core, or PCE) against the Fed's 2% goal: near 2% is ok, 2.5–4% is still above target, 4%+ is hot.

Core PCE Inflation (year-over-year)

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• okbelow 2.50%
• watch2.50% to 4.00%
• elevated4.00% and up

A year-over-year inflation rate (CPI, core, or PCE) against the Fed's 2% goal: near 2% is ok, 2.5–4% is still above target, 4%+ is hot.

Real Wage Growth (year-over-year)

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• watchbelow 0.00%
• ok0.00% and up

Inflation-adjusted pay. Below zero means paychecks aren't keeping up with prices (watch); positive is ok.

Federal Debt · % of GDP

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 90.00%
• watch90.00% to 110.00%
• elevated110.00% to 130.00%
• alert130.00% and up

Federal debt versus the size of the economy. It crossed 100% around 2013; the bands mark high (90%), larger-than-the-economy (110%), and uncharted (130%).

Federal Deficit · trailing 12 months

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow $0.80T
• watch$0.80T to $1.50T
• elevated$1.50T to $2.50T
• alert$2.50T and up

The trailing-12-month deficit in trillions. The bands rise from a sizable structural deficit through crisis-era scale — the COVID peak was about $3T.

Federal Interest Cost · annual rate

Tracked, not scored: The dollar interest bill climbs with the economy; the scored read is interest as a share of revenue, alongside debt-to-GDP and the deficit.

Interest Cost · share of federal revenue

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 10.00%
• watch10.00% to 15.00%
• elevated15.00% to 22.00%
• alert22.00% and up

Federal interest as a share of TOTAL receipts — the conventional ~20% figure. A record-high read prints 'elevated'; 'alert' is reserved for a genuinely unprecedented level above ~22%.

Federal Receipts · year-over-year

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• alertbelow -8.00%
• elevated-8.00% to -3.00%
• watch-3.00% to 0.00%
• ok0.00% and up

Scored on the year-over-year change where FALLING is the stress signal — profits, new-business applications, capital-goods orders, sales. Growth is ok; the bands mark progressively deeper contractions.

Noncurrent Loan Rate · loans 90+ days past due

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 1.00%
• watch1.00% to 2.00%
• elevated2.00% to 3.00%
• alert3.00% and up

Loans 90+ days past due as a share of all loans. Under 1% is low by historical standards; 1–2% is creeping; above 2% is elevated; 3%+ marks crisis territory — in the two decades of data shown it occurred only in the 2009–2013 aftermath (the early-1990s S&L era also ran that high).

Net Charge-Off Rate · annualized

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 0.60%
• watch0.60% to 1.20%
• elevated1.20% to 2.00%
• alert2.00% and up

Loans written off as losses. Under ~0.6% is benign; the bands mark where losses become a meaningful drag on earnings; in the two decades of data shown, 2%+ occurred only in 2009–2010.

Net Interest Margin · annualized

Scored on the latest reading.

• watchbelow 2.50%
• ok2.50% and up

Net interest margin. Below ~2.5% is a compressed spread that squeezes bank earnings.

Return on Assets · annualized

Scored on the latest reading.

• alertbelow 0.00%
• elevated0.00% to 0.50%
• watch0.50% to 1.00%
• ok1.00% and up

Return on assets. 1%+ is solid bank profitability; 0.5–1% is subdued; below 0.5% is weak; below zero the industry as a whole is losing money — seen only at the depth of 2008–09.

Total Risk-Based Capital Ratio

Scored on the latest reading.

• elevatedbelow 8.00%
• watch8.00% to 10.00%
• ok10.00% and up

The regulators' headline solvency gauge: 10%+ is 'well-capitalized', 8–10% adequate, below 8% under the minimum.

Equity-to-Assets

Scored on the latest reading.

• elevatedbelow 7.50%
• watch7.50% to 9.00%
• ok9.00% and up

Equity-to-assets. Banks historically run ~9–11%; below 9% is on the lighter side, below 7.5% is a thin cushion.

Uninsured-Deposit Share

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 40.00%
• watch40.00% and up

Deposits above the $250k FDIC cap — the money most likely to flee in a panic, as at Silicon Valley Bank. Above ~40% is flight-prone.

Loans-to-Deposits

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 90.00%
• watch90.00% and up

Loans as a share of deposits. Above ~90% means the system's funding is stretched.

CRE Concentration · % of capital

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 200.00%
• watch200.00% to 300.00%
• elevated300.00% and up

Commercial real estate as a share of bank capital. Above ~300% is the interagency supervisory concentration flag; ~200% is a notable build.

Volatility · VIX

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 20.00
• watch20.00 to 30.00
• elevated30.00 to 40.00
• alert40.00 and up

The equity 'fear gauge'. Below 20 is calm; 20–30 is nervous; 30+ is fearful; 40+ is panic — closes that high are rare, clustering around major market shocks like 1998, 2008–09, 2020, and spring 2025.

High-Yield Credit Spread

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 4.00%
• watch4.00% to 6.00%
• elevated6.00% to 8.00%
• alert8.00% and up

The extra yield investors demand over Treasuries. Tight spreads signal calm credit; the bands mark where spreads have historically started to price real default risk (the high-yield band sits wider than investment-grade because junk spreads are structurally larger). The alert line marks blowout levels reached historically only in severe credit-stress episodes — 2008, 2011, early 2016, and March 2020 for high-yield.

Investment-Grade Credit Spread

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 1.50%
• watch1.50% to 2.50%
• elevated2.50% to 3.50%
• alert3.50% and up

The extra yield investors demand over Treasuries. Tight spreads signal calm credit; the bands mark where spreads have historically started to price real default risk (the high-yield band sits wider than investment-grade because junk spreads are structurally larger). The alert line marks blowout levels reached historically only in severe credit-stress episodes — 2008, 2011, early 2016, and March 2020 for high-yield.

Financial Conditions · NFCI

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 0.00
• watch0.00 to 0.50
• elevated0.50 to 1.00
• alert1.00 and up

The Chicago Fed NFCI, where zero is average. Positive means tighter (more stressed) than normal; 0.5+ is tight; 1.0+ has printed in the modern era only during 2008–09.

S&P 500

Neutral scoreboard: Part of a neutral scoreboard — it shows which way the price is moving, not whether that's good or bad.

Crude Oil · WTI

Neutral scoreboard: Part of a neutral scoreboard — it shows which way the price is moving, not whether that's good or bad.

Gold

Neutral scoreboard: Part of a neutral scoreboard — it shows which way the price is moving, not whether that's good or bad.

Bitcoin

Neutral scoreboard: Part of a neutral scoreboard — it shows which way the price is moving, not whether that's good or bad.

Ethereum

Neutral scoreboard: Part of a neutral scoreboard — it shows which way the price is moving, not whether that's good or bad.

M2 Money Supply · year-over-year

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• elevatedbelow -3.00%
• watch-3.00% to -1.00%
• ok-1.00% to 7.00%
• watch7.00% to 10.00%
• elevated10.00% and up

Money-supply growth, two-sided: double-digit growth is historically inflationary (2020–21), while an outright contraction is rare and signals a monetary squeeze (2022–23). The calm band is roughly -1% to 7%.

Fed Balance Sheet · total assets

Tracked, not scored: A descriptive level of the monetary plumbing — this lens's verdict is carried by M2 money-supply growth.

Bank Reserves at the Fed

Tracked, not scored: A descriptive level of the monetary plumbing — this lens's verdict is carried by M2 money-supply growth.

Overnight Reverse Repo

Tracked, not scored: A descriptive level of the monetary plumbing — this lens's verdict is carried by M2 money-supply growth.

Bitcoin Dominance

Neutral scoreboard: A structural read on how money is rotating within crypto — not a good-or-bad verdict.

Large-vs-Small Rotation

Neutral scoreboard: A structural read on how money is rotating within crypto — not a good-or-bad verdict.

Bitcoin / Ether Ratio

Neutral scoreboard: A structural read on how money is rotating within crypto — not a good-or-bad verdict.

Retail Sales · year-over-year

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• alertbelow -8.00%
• elevated-8.00% to -4.00%
• watch-4.00% to -1.00%
• ok-1.00% to 8.00%
• watch8.00% to 15.00%
• elevated15.00% to 25.00%
• alert25.00% and up

Scored on the year-over-year change, two-sided: both an overheating boom and a sharp contraction raise severity, because each is its own kind of instability. The quiet middle band is ok.

Real Consumer Spending · year-over-year

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• alertbelow -4.00%
• elevated-4.00% to -2.00%
• watch-2.00% to -0.50%
• ok-0.50% to 4.00%
• watch4.00% to 6.00%
• elevated6.00% to 9.00%
• alert9.00% and up

Scored on the year-over-year change, two-sided: both an overheating boom and a sharp contraction raise severity, because each is its own kind of instability. The quiet middle band is ok.

Vehicle Sales · annual rate

Scored on the latest reading.

• alertbelow 12.00M
• elevated12.00M to 13.50M
• watch13.50M to 15.00M
• ok15.00M and up

Light-vehicle sales (annual-rate millions) — the big-ticket purchase households cut first. ~15M+ is healthy; the 2009 and 2020 troughs near 9M anchor the alert band.

Credit-Card Delinquency Rate

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 2.50%
• watch2.50% to 4.00%
• elevated4.00% to 6.00%
• alert6.00% and up

Delinquency-rate levels, calibrated against history — bank credit-card delinquency peaked near 6.8% in 2009. Low and steady is ok; climbing toward past-crisis levels escalates.

Consumer-Loan Delinquency Rate

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 2.50%
• watch2.50% to 3.50%
• elevated3.50% to 4.50%
• alert4.50% and up

Delinquency-rate levels, calibrated against history — bank credit-card delinquency peaked near 6.8% in 2009. Low and steady is ok; climbing toward past-crisis levels escalates.

Card Balances · year-over-year

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• okbelow 8.00%
• watch8.00% to 12.00%
• elevated12.00% and up

Credit-card balance growth. Growing faster than incomes (8%+) means households are leaning on cards; shrinking balances mean paying down.

Household Debt Service · % of income

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 10.50%
• watch10.50% to 12.00%
• elevated12.00% to 13.00%
• alert13.00% and up

Household debt payments as a share of income. Above ~10.5% is above the comfortable range; the 2007 danger level of ~13% anchors the alert band.

New-Car Loan Rate · 48-month

Tracked, not scored: A retail borrowing rate shown for context — the scored consumer-stress reads here are delinquencies, balances, and debt service.

Personal Saving Rate

Scored on the latest reading.

• elevatedbelow 3.00%
• watch3.00% to 5.00%
• ok5.00% and up

The personal saving rate — the household shock absorber. The historical norm is 5–8%; below 5% is thin, below 3% is almost no cushion.

Real Disposable Income · year-over-year

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• elevatedbelow -2.00%
• watch-2.00% to 0.00%
• ok0.00% and up

Inflation-adjusted disposable income, the root of most consumer stress. Below zero is a warning; a 2%+ annual drop erodes purchasing power fast.

Household Net Worth · year-over-year

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• alertbelow -8.00%
• elevated-8.00% to -3.00%
• watch-3.00% to 0.00%
• ok0.00% and up

Scored on the year-over-year change where FALLING is the stress signal — profits, new-business applications, capital-goods orders, sales. Growth is ok; the bands mark progressively deeper contractions.

Consumer Sentiment (U. Michigan)

Scored on the latest reading.

• alertbelow 55.00
• elevated55.00 to 70.00
• watch70.00 to 85.00
• ok85.00 and up

U. Michigan consumer sentiment, long-run range roughly 50–110. 85+ is fine; the bands step down through recession-grade gloom; readings below 55 have historically been record-territory lows.

Inflation Expectations · 1-year ahead

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 3.00%
• watch3.00% to 4.00%
• elevated4.00% to 5.50%
• alert5.50% and up

One-year-ahead household inflation expectations, which the Fed watches for de-anchoring. Above ~3% is a touch high; 5.5%+ suggests expectations coming unmoored.

Retail Gasoline · Regular

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• okbelow 10.00%
• watch10.00% to 25.00%
• elevated25.00% to 40.00%
• alert40.00% and up

Scored on the trailing-12-month change, because what strains a household is how fast a cost is rising, not its dollar level. The bands reflect how volatile each fuel or power price normally is; a falling cost reads as relief (ok).

Retail Diesel · On-Highway

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• okbelow 10.00%
• watch10.00% to 25.00%
• elevated25.00% to 40.00%
• alert40.00% and up

Scored on the trailing-12-month change, because what strains a household is how fast a cost is rising, not its dollar level. The bands reflect how volatile each fuel or power price normally is; a falling cost reads as relief (ok).

U.S. Crude Oil Production

Tracked, not scored: A physical supply-and-demand reading, not a household cost — this lens's verdict comes from the price indicators.

Crude Inventories · excl. SPR

Tracked, not scored: A physical supply-and-demand reading, not a household cost — this lens's verdict comes from the price indicators.

Henry Hub Spot Price

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• okbelow 20.00%
• watch20.00% to 50.00%
• elevated50.00% to 100.00%
• alert100.00% and up

Scored on the trailing-12-month change, because what strains a household is how fast a cost is rising, not its dollar level. The bands reflect how volatile each fuel or power price normally is; a falling cost reads as relief (ok).

Working Gas in Storage · Lower 48

Tracked, not scored: A physical supply-and-demand reading, not a household cost — this lens's verdict comes from the price indicators.

U.S. Dry Gas Production

Tracked, not scored: A physical supply-and-demand reading, not a household cost — this lens's verdict comes from the price indicators.

U.S. LNG Exports

Tracked, not scored: A physical supply-and-demand reading, not a household cost — this lens's verdict comes from the price indicators.

Retail Electricity · Residential

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• okbelow 5.00%
• watch5.00% to 10.00%
• elevated10.00% to 20.00%
• alert20.00% and up

Scored on the trailing-12-month change, because what strains a household is how fast a cost is rising, not its dollar level. The bands reflect how volatile each fuel or power price normally is; a falling cost reads as relief (ok).

Renewables · Share of Generation

Tracked, not scored: A physical supply-and-demand reading, not a household cost — this lens's verdict comes from the price indicators.

Natural Gas · Share of Generation

Tracked, not scored: A physical supply-and-demand reading, not a household cost — this lens's verdict comes from the price indicators.

Total Net Generation

Tracked, not scored: A physical supply-and-demand reading, not a household cost — this lens's verdict comes from the price indicators.

Global Food Prices · year-over-year

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• okbelow 5.00%
• watch5.00% to 12.00%
• elevated12.00% to 25.00%
• alert25.00% and up

A cost already expressed as a year-over-year rate. Same logic as the fuel costs: faster annual increases mean more household strain; flat or falling is ok.

U.S. Grocery Prices · year-over-year

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• okbelow 3.00%
• watch3.00% to 6.00%
• elevated6.00% to 10.00%
• alert10.00% and up

A cost already expressed as a year-over-year rate. Same logic as the fuel costs: faster annual increases mean more household strain; flat or falling is ok.

Copper · “Dr. Copper”

Tracked, not scored: A market price has no inherent good-or-bad level — higher or lower isn't itself better or worse.

Broad Commodities · year-over-year

Tracked, not scored: A market price has no inherent good-or-bad level — higher or lower isn't itself better or worse.

Case-Shiller Home Prices · year-over-year

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• alertbelow -10.00%
• elevated-10.00% to -5.00%
• watch-5.00% to -2.00%
• ok-2.00% to 6.00%
• watch6.00% to 10.00%
• elevated10.00% to 15.00%
• alert15.00% and up

Scored on the year-over-year change, two-sided: both an overheating boom and a sharp contraction raise severity, because each is its own kind of instability. The quiet middle band is ok.

Existing-Home Sales · annual rate

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• alertbelow -30.00%
• elevated-30.00% to -20.00%
• watch-20.00% to -10.00%
• ok-10.00% to 10.00%
• watch10.00% to 20.00%
• elevated20.00% to 30.00%
• alert30.00% and up

Two-sided on the trailing-12-month change: a market running too hot (a bubble) and one freezing (a bust) are both unhealthy, so both raise severity. The calm middle is a balanced market.

Median Sales Price of Houses Sold

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• alertbelow -10.00%
• elevated-10.00% to -5.00%
• watch-5.00% to -2.00%
• ok-2.00% to 6.00%
• watch6.00% to 10.00%
• elevated10.00% to 15.00%
• alert15.00% and up

Two-sided on the trailing-12-month change: a market running too hot (a bubble) and one freezing (a bust) are both unhealthy, so both raise severity. The calm middle is a balanced market.

Housing Affordability Index (NAR)

Scored on the latest reading.

• alertbelow 95.00
• elevated95.00 to 110.00
• watch110.00 to 130.00
• ok130.00 and up

The NAR affordability index, where 100 means the median family just barely affords the median home. Higher is better, so the bands are inverted: 130+ is comfortable, below 95 is out of reach.

Mortgage Debt Service · % of income

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 6.00%
• watch6.00% to 7.00%
• elevated7.00% to 8.00%
• alert8.00% and up

Mortgage payments as a share of income, calibrated to its own history: median ~6.1%, the 2007 peak ~7.2%, the early-1980s extreme ~8.9%.

Mortgage Delinquency Rate · banks

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 2.00%
• watch2.00% to 4.00%
• elevated4.00% to 7.00%
• alert7.00% and up

Single-family mortgages past due at banks. Under 2% is healthy; the bands climb toward the 2009 crisis peak of about 11%.

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 5.50%
• watch5.50% to 6.50%
• elevated6.50% to 7.50%
• alert7.50% and up

30-year mortgage-rate levels. Below ~5.5% is moderate by recent standards; the bands step up through where affordability gets stretched (6.5%) and where most buyers are frozen out (7.5%).

Months of New-Home Supply

Scored on the latest reading.

• elevatedbelow 3.00 months
• watch3.00 months to 4.00 months
• ok4.00 months to 6.00 months
• watch6.00 months to 8.00 months
• elevated8.00 months to 10.00 months
• alert10.00 months and up

Months of new-home supply, two-sided: 4–6 months is balanced, under 3 is a tight market that props up prices, and 8+ is a glut that pressures builders.

Active Listings (Realtor.com) · millions

Tracked, not scored: Months' supply, which adjusts for the sales pace, carries this lens's supply verdict; this is the raw count for context.

Housing Starts · thousands, annual rate

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• alertbelow -35.00%
• elevated-35.00% to -20.00%
• watch-20.00% to -10.00%
• ok-10.00% to 20.00%
• watch20.00% to 35.00%
• elevated35.00% to 50.00%
• alert50.00% and up

Two-sided on the trailing-12-month change: a market running too hot (a bubble) and one freezing (a bust) are both unhealthy, so both raise severity. The calm middle is a balanced market.

Building Permits · thousands, annual rate

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• alertbelow -35.00%
• elevated-35.00% to -20.00%
• watch-20.00% to -10.00%
• ok-10.00% to 20.00%
• watch20.00% to 35.00%
• elevated35.00% to 50.00%
• alert50.00% and up

Two-sided on the trailing-12-month change: a market running too hot (a bubble) and one freezing (a bust) are both unhealthy, so both raise severity. The calm middle is a balanced market.

Rent Inflation · CPI rent, year-over-year

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• okbelow 4.00%
• watch4.00% to 6.00%
• elevated6.00% to 9.00%
• alert9.00% and up

A cost already expressed as a year-over-year rate. Same logic as the fuel costs: faster annual increases mean more household strain; flat or falling is ok.

Owners' Equivalent Rent · year-over-year

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• okbelow 4.00%
• watch4.00% to 6.00%
• elevated6.00% to 9.00%
• alert9.00% and up

A cost already expressed as a year-over-year rate. Same logic as the fuel costs: faster annual increases mean more household strain; flat or falling is ok.

Rental Vacancy Rate

Scored on the latest reading.

• elevatedbelow 5.00%
• watch5.00% to 6.00%
• ok6.00% to 8.00%
• watch8.00% to 10.00%
• elevated10.00% and up

Rental vacancy, two-sided: 6–8% is a healthy balance, low vacancy gives landlords pricing power (rent pressure), and high vacancy hands it back to renters.

Homeownership Rate

Tracked, not scored: A descriptive level shown for context — neither a high nor a low reading is simply good or bad.

Broad Dollar Index · year-over-year

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• alertbelow -12.00%
• elevated-12.00% to -9.00%
• watch-9.00% to -5.00%
• ok-5.00% to 5.00%
• watch5.00% to 9.00%
• elevated9.00% to 12.00%
• alert12.00% and up

The broad dollar's year-over-year move, scored two-sided on magnitude: a surging dollar squeezes the world's dollar borrowers and a sliding one imports inflation, so both raise severity. Under ~5% is normal drift.

Euro · dollars per euro

Tracked, not scored: A market price has no inherent good-or-bad level — higher or lower isn't itself better or worse.

Japanese Yen · yen per dollar

Tracked, not scored: A market price has no inherent good-or-bad level — higher or lower isn't itself better or worse.

Chinese Yuan · yuan per dollar

Tracked, not scored: A market price has no inherent good-or-bad level — higher or lower isn't itself better or worse.

World Real GDP Growth · annual

Scored on the latest reading.

• alertbelow 2.00%
• elevated2.00% to 2.50%
• watch2.50% to 3.20%
• ok3.20% and up

Annual world real-GDP growth, scored against its long-run trend of about 3.5%. Below roughly 2% is what economists call a global recession; the bands step down from trend toward that line.

China Real GDP Growth · annual

Tracked, not scored: Shown for context alongside this lens's lead growth reading.

Euro Area Real GDP Growth · annual

Tracked, not scored: Shown for context alongside this lens's lead growth reading.

World Inflation · annual

Tracked, not scored: Shown for context alongside this lens's lead growth reading.

Euro Area Real GDP · year-over-year

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• alertbelow -6.00%
• elevated-6.00% to -2.00%
• watch-2.00% to 0.00%
• ok0.00% and up

Scored on the year-over-year change where FALLING is the stress signal — profits, new-business applications, capital-goods orders, sales. Growth is ok; the bands mark progressively deeper contractions.

Global Supply Chain Pressure Index

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 0.50σ
• watch0.50σ to 1.50σ
• elevated1.50σ to 2.50σ
• alert2.50σ and up

The NY Fed supply-chain pressure index, in standard deviations from normal. Negative is looser than normal (ok); the bands climb toward extreme disruption (the COVID peak was about 4.5σ).

U.S. Trade Deficit · goods & services

Tracked, not scored: The U.S. has run a trade deficit every year since 1976 — the level isn't good or bad on its own; what matters is the trend shown here.

Import Prices · year-over-year

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• okbelow 4.00%
• watch4.00% to 8.00%
• elevated8.00% to 12.00%
• alert12.00% and up

A cost already expressed as a year-over-year rate. Same logic as the fuel costs: faster annual increases mean more household strain; flat or falling is ok.

China Exports · year-over-year

Tracked, not scored: Shown for context — a noisy global-demand pulse the lens's scored indicators read more cleanly.

U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 120
• watch120 to 200
• elevated200 to 300
• alert300 and up

The Baker/Bloom/Davis policy-uncertainty index, whose long-run norm is about 100, so the bands mark multiples of that norm. The global index (GEPU) is held to a 'watch' ceiling here, because it publishes about six months late — too stale to drive a live alarm.

Global Economic Policy Uncertainty

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 120
• watch120 and up

The Baker/Bloom/Davis policy-uncertainty index, whose long-run norm is about 100, so the bands mark multiples of that norm. The global index (GEPU) is held to a 'watch' ceiling here, because it publishes about six months late — too stale to drive a live alarm.

Corporate Profits · year-over-year

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• alertbelow -15.00%
• elevated-15.00% to -5.00%
• watch-5.00% to 0.00%
• ok0.00% and up

Scored on the year-over-year change where FALLING is the stress signal — profits, new-business applications, capital-goods orders, sales. Growth is ok; the bands mark progressively deeper contractions.

Nonfinancial Corporate Profits · year-over-year

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• alertbelow -15.00%
• elevated-15.00% to -5.00%
• watch-5.00% to 0.00%
• ok0.00% and up

Scored on the year-over-year change where FALLING is the stress signal — profits, new-business applications, capital-goods orders, sales. Growth is ok; the bands mark progressively deeper contractions.

Corporate Profits · share of GDP

Tracked, not scored: A descriptive level shown for context — neither a high nor a low reading is simply good or bad.

Proprietors' Income · year-over-year

Tracked, not scored: Shown for context — proprietors' income (which includes farm income) is too volatile to score cleanly.

Business Applications · year-over-year

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• alertbelow -15.00%
• elevated-15.00% to -5.00%
• watch-5.00% to 0.00%
• ok0.00% and up

Scored on the year-over-year change where FALLING is the stress signal — profits, new-business applications, capital-goods orders, sales. Growth is ok; the bands mark progressively deeper contractions.

High-Propensity Applications · year-over-year

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• alertbelow -15.00%
• elevated-15.00% to -5.00%
• watch-5.00% to 0.00%
• ok0.00% and up

Scored on the year-over-year change where FALLING is the stress signal — profits, new-business applications, capital-goods orders, sales. Growth is ok; the bands mark progressively deeper contractions.

High-Propensity Share of Applications

Tracked, not scored: A descriptive level shown for context — neither a high nor a low reading is simply good or bad.

Core Capital-Goods Orders · year-over-year

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• alertbelow -10.00%
• elevated-10.00% to -3.00%
• watch-3.00% to 0.00%
• ok0.00% and up

Scored on the year-over-year change where FALLING is the stress signal — profits, new-business applications, capital-goods orders, sales. Growth is ok; the bands mark progressively deeper contractions.

Real Business Sales · year-over-year

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• alertbelow -6.00%
• elevated-6.00% to -2.00%
• watch-2.00% to 0.00%
• ok0.00% and up

Scored on the year-over-year change where FALLING is the stress signal — profits, new-business applications, capital-goods orders, sales. Growth is ok; the bands mark progressively deeper contractions.

Inventories-to-Sales Ratio

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 1.40
• watch1.40 to 1.50
• elevated1.50 and up

Inventories measured in months of sales. Above ~1.50 is an overhang that typically forces production cuts; 2008 peaked near 1.48, COVID near 1.74.

Baa Corporate Spread · over 10-Year Treasury

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 2.00%
• watch2.00% to 2.50%
• elevated2.50% to 3.50%
• alert3.50% and up

Moody's Baa corporate yield over the 10-year Treasury — the price of ordinary corporate credit risk. Calm is under 2 points; 2008 peaked near 6, which anchors the alert band.

Lending Standards · net % of banks tightening

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 0.00%
• watch0.00% to 20.00%
• elevated20.00% to 50.00%
• alert50.00% and up

The net share of banks tightening business-loan standards (the Fed's loan-officer survey). Easing is ok; sustained tightening above ~20% is a classic late-cycle signal; 2008 hit about 84%.

Business-Loan Delinquency Rate

Scored on the latest reading.

• okbelow 1.50%
• watch1.50% to 2.50%
• elevated2.50% to 4.00%
• alert4.00% and up

Business loans past due at banks. Under 1.5% is healthy; the bands climb toward the 2009 peak of about 4.4%.

C&I Loan Growth · year-over-year

Scored on the year-over-year change.

• alertbelow -12.00%
• elevated-12.00% to -5.00%
• watch-5.00% to -0.50%
• ok-0.50% to 10.00%
• watch10.00% to 20.00%
• elevated20.00% to 30.00%
• alert30.00% and up

Scored on the year-over-year change, two-sided: both an overheating boom and a sharp contraction raise severity, because each is its own kind of instability. The quiet middle band is ok.