Track Record
Every prediction on this site is published before the number exists, then graded in public against the first print. This page is the whole record — hits, misses, and all.
We aim for ~80%, not 100% — a forecaster who’s never wrong is using bands too wide to mean anything.
The “skill” score: how much our predictions beat the naive guess. Recomputable by anyone from the public ledger.
By category
Recent grades
How this works
Each week, every indicator’s full history is backtested: we stand at hundreds of past dates, predict the next print using only data available then, and measure the miss. Whichever simple statistical model wins — and only if it beats the naive “same as last time” guess by a real margin — becomes that indicator’s forecaster. The ranges we publish are the ranges those backtests earned. Every model is explainable in one sentence; there is no black box.
Predictions are graded against the number as first published, then frozen — later data revisions are footnoted, never regraded, and a graded entry never changes. Because the ledger lives in this site’s public git history, the timestamps are independently verifiable: every prediction is committed before its print exists.
Asset prices (the markets scoreboard, crypto) are deliberately not predicted — next week’s market move is the one thing honest models can’t call, and we’d rather show you nothing than theater.
data/predictions/.