Consumers are deeply pessimistic — sentiment is near record lows.

Consumer Sentiment (U. Michigan)

Sentiment: 44.80 — Consumer sentiment is 45 — a record low; households have never been this pessimistic in the data shown. That’s the lowest reading in its history here (since 1952).

How we score this: alert below 55.00 · elevated 55.00 to 70.00 · watch 70.00 to 85.00 · ok 85.00 and up full method

Sentiment: down 3 readings in a row, to its lowest in recent readings.

Inflation Expectations · 1-year ahead

Inflation exp.: 4.80% — Households expect 4.8% inflation next year — well above the Fed's comfort zone. That’s the 87th percentile of all its readings since 1978.

How we score this: ok below 3.00% · watch 3.00% to 4.00% · elevated 4.00% to 5.50% · alert 5.50% and up full method

Inflation exp.: up 3 readings in a row.