Consumer mood is grim — confidence is at recession levels.

Consumer Sentiment (U. Michigan)

Sentiment: 55.20 — Consumer sentiment is 55 — recession-grade gloom. That’s the 2nd percentile of all its readings since 1952.

How we score this: alert below 55.00 · elevated 55.00 to 70.00 · watch 70.00 to 85.00 · ok 85.00 and up full method

Inflation Expectations · 1-year ahead

Inflation exp.: 4.20% — Households expect 4.2% inflation next year — well above the Fed's comfort zone. That’s the 79th percentile of all its readings since 1978.

How we score this: ok below 3.00% · watch 3.00% to 4.00% · elevated 4.00% to 5.50% · alert 5.50% and up full method