Inflation is still hot — well above the Fed's target.
Inflation · CPI (year-over-year)
CPI: 3.46% — Running at 3.5% a year — still above the Fed's 2% goal. That’s the 62nd percentile of all its readings since 1948.
How we score this: ok below 2.50% · watch 2.50% to 4.00% · elevated 4.00% and up full method
Core CPI (year-over-year)
Core CPI: 2.57% — Running at 2.6% a year — still above the Fed's 2% goal. That’s the 45th percentile of all its readings since 1958.
How we score this: ok below 2.50% · watch 2.50% to 4.00% · elevated 4.00% and up full method
PCE Inflation (year-over-year)
PCE: 4.07% — Running at 4.1% a year — well above the Fed's 2% goal. That’s the 73rd percentile of all its readings since 1960.
How we score this: ok below 2.50% · watch 2.50% to 4.00% · elevated 4.00% and up full method
PCE: up 3 readings in a row.
Core PCE Inflation (year-over-year)
Core PCE: 3.41% — Running at 3.4% a year — still above the Fed's 2% goal. That’s the 64th percentile of all its readings since 1960.
How we score this: ok below 2.50% · watch 2.50% to 4.00% · elevated 4.00% and up full method
Core PCE: up 3 readings in a row.
Real Wage Growth (year-over-year)
Real wages: 0.53% — Up 0.5% from a year ago — paychecks are outpacing inflation. That’s the 55th percentile of all its readings since 1980.
How we score this: watch below 0.00% · ok 0.00% and up full method
Real wages: down 4 readings in a row.