Inflation has cooled but isn't beaten — still above target.
Inflation · CPI (year-over-year)
CPI: 3.35% — Running at 3.4% a year — still above the Fed's 2% goal. That’s the 60th percentile of all its readings since 1948.
How we score this: ok below 2.50% · watch 2.50% to 4.00% · elevated 4.00% and up full method
Core CPI (year-over-year)
Core CPI: 2.45% — Running at 2.4% a year — close to the Fed's 2% goal. That’s the 42nd percentile of all its readings since 1958.
How we score this: ok below 2.50% · watch 2.50% to 4.00% · elevated 4.00% and up full method
Core CPI: down 3 readings in a row, to its lowest in recent readings.
PCE Inflation (year-over-year)
PCE: 3.70% — Running at 3.7% a year — still above the Fed's 2% goal. That’s the 68th percentile of all its readings since 1960.
How we score this: ok below 2.50% · watch 2.50% to 4.00% · elevated 4.00% and up full method
Core PCE Inflation (year-over-year)
Core PCE: 3.34% — Running at 3.3% a year — still above the Fed's 2% goal. That’s the 63rd percentile of all its readings since 1960.
How we score this: ok below 2.50% · watch 2.50% to 4.00% · elevated 4.00% and up full method
Real Wage Growth (year-over-year)
Real wages: 0.53% — Up 0.5% from a year ago — paychecks are outpacing inflation. That’s the 55th percentile of all its readings since 1980.
How we score this: watch below 0.00% · ok 0.00% and up full method
Real wages: down 4 readings in a row.