Borrowing is still expensive — rates remain elevated.

Federal Funds Rate

Fed funds: 3.63% — The Fed's policy rate is 3.63%, and easing as the Fed pivots toward cuts. That’s the 42nd percentile of all its readings since 1954.

How we score this: ok below 4.00% · watch 4.00% and up full method

10-Year Treasury Yield

10-year: 4.61% — The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.61% — above the comfortable range for borrowers. That’s the 41st percentile of all its readings since 1962.

How we score this: ok below 4.50% · watch 4.50% to 5.50% · elevated 5.50% and up full method

10-year: down 3 readings in a row.

2-Year Treasury Yield

2-year: 4.26% — The 2-year Treasury yield is 4.26% — above the comfortable range for borrowers. That’s the 46th percentile of all its readings since 1976.

How we score this: ok below 4.00% · watch 4.00% to 5.00% · elevated 5.00% and up full method

2-year: down 3 readings in a row.

Rate Expectations · 2-Year minus Fed Funds

2y vs Fed: 0.63% — The 2-year yield is 0.63 points above the Fed's rate — markets are pricing rate hikes ahead. That’s the 64th percentile of all its readings since 1976.

Why it isn’t scored: Whether markets expect cuts or hikes isn't itself good or bad — it's the bond market's forecast, shown for context.

2y vs Fed: down 3 readings in a row.