Trade frictions are building — supply chains or import costs bear watching.

Global Supply Chain Pressure Index

Supply chain: 1.06σ — Supply-chain pressure is 1.1σ above normal — tighter than usual. That’s the 89th percentile of all its readings since 1997.

How we score this: ok below 0.50σ · watch 0.50σ to 1.50σ · elevated 1.50σ to 2.50σ · alert 2.50σ and up full method

Import Prices · year-over-year

Import prices: 5.95% — Import costs are rising 5.9% a year — climbing. That’s the 79th percentile of all its readings since 1983.

How we score this: ok below 4.00% · watch 4.00% to 8.00% · elevated 8.00% to 12.00% · alert 12.00% and up full method

U.S. Trade Deficit · goods & services

Trade deficit: $88.60B — The U.S. trade deficit is $88.6B a month, wider than a year ago. That’s the 98th percentile of all its readings since 1992.

Why it isn’t scored: The U.S. has run a trade deficit every year since 1976 — the level isn't good or bad on its own; what matters is the trend shown here.

China Exports · year-over-year

China exports: 25.39% — China's export trade is rising 25.4% a year. That’s the 74th percentile of all its readings since 2001.

Why it isn’t scored: Shown for context — a noisy global-demand pulse the lens's scored indicators read more cleanly.

China exports: up 3 readings in a row.