The job market is cooling — still solid, but losing momentum.

Unemployment Rate

Unemployment: 4.20% — Unemployment is steady at 4.2%, near its recent lows. That’s the 20th percentile of all its readings since 1948.

How we score this: ok below 0.50 pts · watch 0.50 pts and up full method

Nonfarm Payrolls · monthly change

Payrolls: 57,000 — Employers added just 57,000 jobs last month — hiring has slowed sharply. That’s the 29th percentile of all its readings since 1939.

How we score this: alert below 0 · watch 0 to 150,000 · ok 150,000 and up full method

Payrolls: down 3 readings in a row.

Job Openings (JOLTS)

Openings: 7.60M — 7.6 million open jobs, holding roughly steady. That’s the 86th percentile of all its readings since 2000.

How we score this: watch below 7.50M · ok 7.50M and up full method

Wage Growth · year-over-year

Wages: 3.52% — Pay is up 3.5% from a year ago, running ahead of recent inflation. That’s the 67th percentile of all its readings since 2007.

How we score this: elevated below 2.00% · watch 2.00% to 3.00% · ok 3.00% and up full method

Quits Rate (JOLTS)

Quits: 1.90% — The quits rate is 1.9%, down 0.2 points from a year ago. That’s the 28th percentile of all its readings since 2000.

Why it isn’t scored: The quits rate tends to track workers' confidence in finding another job — shown for context; the verdict is carried by unemployment, payrolls, and openings.

Labor-Force Participation Rate

Participation: 61.50% — Labor-force participation is 61.5%, down 0.8 points from a year ago. That’s the 36th percentile of all its readings since 1948.

Why it isn’t scored: This level drifts with demographics — the job-market verdict is carried by unemployment, payrolls, and job openings.

Participation: its lowest in recent readings — its sharpest drop in recent readings.