The economy looks steady — no major recession signals right now.

Yield Curve · 10-Year minus 2-Year

Yield curve: 0.39% — The curve is positive (+0.39) with no recent inversion — no recession warning from the curve right now.

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

Sahm rule: 0.10 — The Sahm rule is at 0.10, well below its 0.50 recession trigger.

Initial Jobless Claims · weekly

Jobless claims: 229,000 — Initial jobless claims are low at 229,000 — employers aren't shedding workers.

Unemployment Rate

Unemployment: 4.30% — Unemployment is steady at 4.3%, near its recent lows.