The economy looks steady — no major recession signals right now.

Yield Curve · 10-Year minus 2-Year

Yield curve: 0.33% — The curve is positive (+0.33) with no recent inversion — no recession warning from the curve right now. That’s the 32nd percentile of all its readings since 1976.

Yield curve: down 3 readings in a row, to its lowest in recent readings.

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

Sahm rule: -0.07 — The Sahm rule is at -0.07, well below its 0.50 recession trigger. That’s the 14th percentile of all its readings since 1959.

How we score this: ok below 0.35 · watch 0.35 to 0.50 · alert 0.50 and up full method

Sahm rule: down 9 readings in a row, to its lowest in recent readings.

Initial Jobless Claims · weekly

Jobless claims: 206,000 — Initial jobless claims are low at 206,000 — employers aren't shedding workers. That’s the 4th percentile of all its readings since 1967.

How we score this: ok below 250,000 · watch 250,000 to 300,000 · elevated 300,000 and up full method

Unemployment Rate

Unemployment: 4.10% — Unemployment is steady at 4.1%, near its recent lows. That’s the 18th percentile of all its readings since 1948.

How we score this: ok below 0.50 pts · watch 0.50 pts and up full method