Brief for July 1, 2026
The daily read on the U.S. and global economy — where things stand, what changed, and what we’re watching next. Open anything for the full charts and context.
As of July 1, 2026
watch The economy is holding up, but not without strain: the housing market is out of balance and household finances are stretched thin, while banks are solid and markets are calm.
Four of today's pressure points are about the cost of living — food and commodities, overall inflation, fuel, and electricity.
What changed today
Real income is pay measured after inflation — so when the cost of living climbs faster than wages, real incomes fall by definition.
Status changes first — the headline events — then the biggest moves in the data, judged against each indicator’s own typical day-to-day swing.
No status changes today — a quiet day on the board.
Biggest movers
Energy · Commodities & Materials
Commodity costs are surging.
Food: up 7 readings in a row, to a fresh high.
Food 30.20% 18.60%
Markets · Liquidity & the Fed
Liquidity is ample — no monetary squeeze in sight.
M2 growth: a fresh high in this view.
M2 growth 5.58% 0.86%
Consumer · Consumer Spending
Consumers are still spending at a healthy pace.
Retail sales: up 5 readings in a row, to a fresh high.
Retail sales 6.88% 2.09%
Housing · Supply & Construction
Housing supply is at an extreme — construction or inventory is flashing red.
Months' supply: a fresh high in this view.
Months' supply 10.30 months 1.00 months
Business · Corporate Profits
Corporate America is profitable — earnings are growing.
Profit growth 18.40% 15.60%
What we’re watching next
Our published predictions for the most consequential upcoming prints — each graded in public when the number lands.
Months of New-Home Supplywe expect 10.00 months — which would tip Supply & Construction to elevatedGlobal Economic Policy Uncertaintywe expect 353, no status changeCase-Shiller Home Prices · year-over-yearwe expect 0.60%, no status changeOur track record →Get this in your inbox
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Where the pressure is
Everything currently warranting attention, worst first.
On alert — levels that have historically meant real stress
ConsumerConsumer SentimentalertConsumers are deeply pessimistic — sentiment is near record lows.EnergyCommodities & MaterialsalertCommodity costs are surging.HousingSupply & ConstructionalertHousing supply is at an extreme — construction or inventory is flashing red.Elevated — clearly outside comfortable ranges
EconomyThe Cost of LivingelevatedInflation is still hot — well above the Fed's target.EconomyFiscal HealthelevatedThe U.S. is borrowing heavily — debt and interest costs are climbing.HousingAffordability & FinancingelevatedHousing affordability is badly stretched.GlobalTrade & Supply ChainelevatedGlobal trade is under real strain — supply chains or import costs are stressed.GlobalUncertainty & RiskelevatedPolicy uncertainty is high — what governments do next is a major source of risk.On watch — first warnings
EconomyThe Cost of MoneywatchBorrowing is still expensive — rates remain elevated.ConsumerConsumer Credit StresswatchConsumer credit bears watching — debt loads are creeping up.ConsumerHousehold Income & SavingswatchHousehold finances are tightening — cushions are shrinking.BankingConcentrations & FundingwatchSome concentration and funding risks are building.BusinessBusiness CreditwatchBusiness credit bears watching — conditions are tightening at the margin.EnergyOil & FuelswatchFuel costs are climbing.EnergyElectricity & the GridwatchElectricity prices are climbing.Across the dashboards
Every category’s overall read — jump into any of them.
watchEconomic LenseselevatedThe ConsumerokBanking System HealthokCorporate & Business HealthokMarkets & Financial ConditionselevatedEnergy & CommoditieselevatedHousing & Real EstatewatchGlobal Economy