Brief for July 25, 2026
The daily read on the U.S. and global economy — where things stand, what changed, and what we’re watching next. Open anything for the full charts and context.
As of July 25, 2026
watch The economy is holding up, but not without strain: household finances are stretched thin, while banks are solid and markets are calm.
Four of today's pressure points are about the cost of living — overall inflation, fuel, electricity, and food and commodities.
What changed today
Real income is pay measured after inflation — so when the cost of living climbs faster than wages, real incomes fall by definition.
Status changes first — the headline events — then the biggest moves in the data, judged against each indicator’s own typical day-to-day swing.
No status changes today — a quiet day on the board.
Biggest movers
Economy · The Cost of Living
Inflation is still hot — well above the Fed's target.
CPI 3.46% 0.70%
Markets · Liquidity & the Fed
Liquidity is ample — no monetary squeeze in sight.
M2 growth: a fresh high in this view.
M2 growth 5.58% 0.86%
Global · Trade & Supply Chain
Trade frictions are building — supply chains or import costs bear watching.
Supply chain 1.25σ 0.56σ
Business · Corporate Profits
Corporate America is profitable — earnings are growing.
Profit growth 18.40% 15.60%
Markets · Risk Sentiment
Markets are calm — volatility and credit stress are low.
VIX 18.70 2.06
What we’re watching next
Our published predictions for the most consequential upcoming prints — each graded in public when the number lands.
Case-Shiller Home Prices · year-over-yearwe expect 0.89%, no status changeReal Business Sales · year-over-yearwe expect 1.30%, no status changeJob Openings (JOLTS)we expect 7.60M, no status changeOur track record →Get this in your inbox
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Where the pressure is
Everything currently warranting attention, worst first.
On alert — levels that have historically meant real stress
ConsumerConsumer SentimentalertConsumers are deeply pessimistic — sentiment is near record lows.Elevated — clearly outside comfortable ranges
EconomyThe Cost of LivingelevatedInflation is still hot — well above the Fed's target.EconomyFiscal HealthelevatedThe U.S. is borrowing heavily — debt and interest costs are climbing.EnergyOil & FuelselevatedFuel costs are well above last year.HousingAffordability & FinancingelevatedHousing affordability is badly stretched.HousingSupply & ConstructionelevatedHousing supply is out of balance — inventory or construction is strained.GlobalUncertainty & RiskelevatedPolicy uncertainty is high — what governments do next is a major source of risk.On watch — first warnings
EconomyThe Cost of MoneywatchBorrowing is still expensive — rates remain elevated.EconomyThe Job MarketwatchThe job market is cooling — still solid, but losing momentum.ConsumerConsumer Credit StresswatchConsumer credit bears watching — debt loads are creeping up.ConsumerHousehold Income & SavingswatchHousehold finances are tightening — cushions are shrinking.BankingConcentrations & FundingwatchSome concentration and funding risks are building.BusinessBusiness CreditwatchBusiness credit bears watching — conditions are tightening at the margin.EnergyElectricity & the GridwatchElectricity prices are climbing.EnergyCommodities & MaterialswatchCommodity costs are climbing.GlobalTrade & Supply ChainwatchTrade frictions are building — supply chains or import costs bear watching.Across the dashboards
Every category’s overall read — jump into any of them.
watchEconomic LenseselevatedThe ConsumerokBanking System HealthokCorporate & Business HealthokMarkets & Financial ConditionswatchEnergy & CommoditieswatchHousing & Real EstatewatchGlobal Economy