Brief for July 28, 2026

The daily read on the U.S. and global economy — where things stand, what changed, and what we’re watching next. Open anything for the full charts and context.

As of July 28, 2026

watch Most of the economy is on solid footing — banks are solid and markets are calm — but household finances are stretched thin.

Four of today's pressure points are about the cost of living — overall inflation, fuel, electricity, and food and commodities.

What changed today

Real income is pay measured after inflation — so when the cost of living climbs faster than wages, real incomes fall by definition.

Status changes first — the headline events — then the biggest moves in the data, judged against each indicator’s own typical day-to-day swing.

No status changes today — a quiet day on the board.

Biggest movers

Economy · The Cost of Living

Inflation is still hot — well above the Fed's target.

CPI 3.46% 0.70%

Markets · Liquidity & the Fed

Liquidity is ample — no monetary squeeze in sight.

M2 growth: a fresh high in this view.

M2 growth 5.58% 0.86%

Global · Trade & Supply Chain

Trade frictions are building — supply chains or import costs bear watching.

Supply chain 1.25σ 0.56σ

Global · The Dollar & Currencies

Currency markets are calm — the dollar is near where it was a year ago.

Dollar YoY 0.60% 0.52%

Business · Corporate Profits

Corporate America is profitable — earnings are growing.

Profit growth 18.40% 15.60%

What we’re watching next

Our published predictions for the most consequential upcoming prints — each graded in public when the number lands.

Case-Shiller Home Prices · year-over-yearwe expect 0.89%, no status change Real Business Sales · year-over-yearwe expect 1.30%, no status change Job Openings (JOLTS)we expect 7.60M, no status change Our track record →

Where the pressure is

Everything currently warranting attention, worst first.

On alert — levels that have historically meant real stress

ConsumerConsumer SentimentalertConsumers are deeply pessimistic — sentiment is near record lows.

Elevated — clearly outside comfortable ranges

EconomyThe Cost of LivingelevatedInflation is still hot — well above the Fed's target.EconomyFiscal HealthelevatedThe U.S. is borrowing heavily — debt and interest costs are climbing.EnergyOil & FuelselevatedFuel costs are well above last year.HousingAffordability & FinancingelevatedHousing affordability is badly stretched.HousingSupply & ConstructionelevatedHousing supply is out of balance — inventory or construction is strained.GlobalUncertainty & RiskelevatedPolicy uncertainty is high — what governments do next is a major source of risk.

On watch — first warnings

EconomyThe Cost of MoneywatchBorrowing is still expensive — rates remain elevated.EconomyThe Job MarketwatchThe job market is cooling — still solid, but losing momentum.ConsumerConsumer Credit StresswatchConsumer credit bears watching — debt loads are creeping up.ConsumerHousehold Income & SavingswatchHousehold finances are tightening — cushions are shrinking.BankingConcentrations & FundingwatchSome concentration and funding risks are building.BusinessBusiness CreditwatchBusiness credit bears watching — conditions are tightening at the margin.EnergyElectricity & the GridwatchElectricity prices are climbing.EnergyCommodities & MaterialswatchCommodity costs are climbing.GlobalTrade & Supply ChainwatchTrade frictions are building — supply chains or import costs bear watching.

Across the dashboards

Every category’s overall read — jump into any of them.

watchEconomic Lenses elevatedThe Consumer okBanking System Health okCorporate & Business Health okMarkets & Financial Conditions watchEnergy & Commodities watchHousing & Real Estate watchGlobal Economy

Data: FRED (St. Louis Fed), the FDIC, the U.S. EIA, the IMF, the NY Fed, policyuncertainty.com, and CoinGecko. Public data, refreshed regularly. Get the brief in your reader: RSS feed.

Brief for July 28, 2026

What changed today

What we’re watching next

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Where the pressure is

Across the dashboards