This is the brief from July 31, 2026 — see today’s brief.

Brief for July 31, 2026

The daily read on the U.S. and global economy — where things stand, what changed, and what we’re watching next. Open anything for the full charts and context.

As of July 31, 2026
watch Most of the economy is on solid footing — banks are solid and business health is holding up — but household finances are stretched thin.
Four of today's pressure points are about the cost of living — fuel, overall inflation, electricity, and food and commodities.

What changed today

Real income is pay measured after inflation — so when the cost of living climbs faster than wages, real incomes fall by definition.

Status changes first — the headline events — then the biggest moves in the data, judged against each indicator’s own typical day-to-day swing.

MarketsRisk Sentimentok → watchA few cracks are showing — sentiment is no longer all calm.EconomyThe Cost of Livingelevated → watchInflation has cooled but isn't beaten — still above target.
Biggest movers
Energy · Natural Gas
Natural gas costs are stable or easing.
Henry Hub: down 3 readings in a row, to its lowest in this view.
Henry Hub $2.63 $0.24
Markets · Asset-Class Scoreboard
How the major asset classes are moving right now.
S&P 500 7,316 113
Global · Trade & Supply Chain
Trade frictions are building — supply chains or import costs bear watching.
Supply chain 1.25σ 0.56σ

What we’re watching next

Our published predictions for the most consequential upcoming prints — each graded in public when the number lands.

Retail Diesel · On-Highwaywe expect $5.44 — which would tip Oil & Fuels to alertJob Openings (JOLTS)we expect 7.60M, no status changeCard Balances · year-over-yearwe expect 3.58%, no status changeOur track record →

Get the week in your inbox

The Week in Review — one free email every Friday morning with the week’s status changes, biggest moves, and what we’re watching next. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.

Where the pressure is

Everything currently warranting attention, worst first.

Across the dashboards

Every category’s overall read — jump into any of them.

watchEconomic LenseselevatedThe ConsumerokBanking System HealthokCorporate & Business HealthwatchMarkets & Financial ConditionswatchEnergy & CommoditieswatchHousing & Real EstatewatchGlobal Economy
Data: FRED (St. Louis Fed), the FDIC, the U.S. EIA, the IMF, the NY Fed, policyuncertainty.com, and CoinGecko. Public data, refreshed regularly. Get the brief in your reader: RSS feed.